ABSTRACT
The Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing public health concern worldwide. COVID-19 infections continue to occur and thus, it is important to assess the effects of various public health measures. This study aims to forecast COVID-19 cases by geographical area in Korea, based on the effects of different control-intervention intensities (CII). Methods involved estimating the effective reproduction number (Rt) by Korean geographical area using the SEIHR model, and the instantaneous reproduction number using statistical model, comparing the epidemic curves and high-, intermediate-, and low-intensity control interventions. Here, short-term four-week forecasts by geographical area were conducted. The mean of delayed instantaneous reproduction number was estimated at 1.36, 1.03, and 0.93 for the low-, intermediate-, and high-intensity control interventions, respectively, in the capital area of Korea from July 16, 2020, to March 4, 2021. The COVID-19 cases were forecasted with an accuracy rate of 11.28%, 13.62%, and 20.19% MAPE in Korea, including both the capital and non-capital areas. High-intensity control measures significantly reduced the reproduction number to be less than one. The proposed model forecasted COVID-19 transmission dynamics with good accuracy and interpretability. High-intensity control intervention, active case detection, and isolation efforts should be maintained to control the pandemic.